Issue 5 - The Gyokeres Issue

Turns out trying to stick to a newsletter schedule is not as easy as first seems. Fear not though, The Goal Markets concept has been ticking away in the background and it is time to start drilling into player performance.

To do so, we are going to look at the performance of arguably the hottest striker on the European continent. A player who was plying his trade for EFL Championship outfit Coventry not too long ago. A player now plying his trade his Portugal.

If the title of this newsletter and the clues above still do not make sense to you, the man in question and the man going through the goal currency converter is none other than Viktor Gyokeres.

A man who could have his pick of many clubs across the summer months - that is if Sporting decide to sell him but if he does move on, we will have a measure of what is expected in terms of output at his new employer.

The Exchange Rates

To achieve such a task, we first need to look at the updated exchange rates since the last newsletter. This re-calibration includes not only a raft of league action across the continent but also Champions League Knockout Phase first-leg ties.

How Many To The Pound?

Although the value of Raheem Sterling seems to be declining by the week, the Premier League pound sterling holds its value of 1.000 with the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga all offering roughly 75% of that when converted.

However, it is the Liga Portugal which is our main focus in this issue and when comparing a goal in the Premier League to a goal in Portugal’s top tier, a goal from Gyokeres or any other is currently worth 0.626 goals.

This is the benchmark that we will be putting through the converter and with the Swedish forward being a regular name on the Sporting scoresheet, there are plenty of goals for us to convert.

The Top 20

A quick look at the top 20 scorers across Europe and it is a Premier League lockout of the top four names on the chart after being put through the currency converter - Harry Kane finally breaking the stranglehold with his 21 Bundesliga goals being worth 16.25 converted.

However, those eagle eyed readers may notice an obvious name missing and that name is Viktor Gyokeres? Why would he be missing when he has scored 22 Liga Portugal goals already in 2024/25?

The reason he is missing is this Top 20 list is only compiled of players from Europe’s ‘Big Five’ and does not show any love for players such as Gyokeres or Troy Parrott who is scoring for fun in the Eredivisie.

Thankfully, the currency converter goes beyond the ‘Big Five’ and now it is time to do the maths.

Viktor Gyokeres Goal Exchange

Picture the scene, Viktor Gyokeres walks into my bureau du change with 22 Liga Portugal goals from only 21 appearances. That in itself is a goal-to-game ratio of 1.04 for Sporting during this 2024/25 season.

Now, let’s assume Gyokeres wants to trade that tally into Premier League goals:

Goals Scored: 22
Premier League Exchange Rate: 0.636
Converted Goal Rate: 13.99

As close to 14 Premier League goals as possible, so lets be fair and round it up to that figure. Under current performance, the exchange rate suggests that his Liga Portugal form this season would be worth 14 goals in the English top tier.

Of course, this is only a measure of the season so far and now we have to look at what would happen if this was extrapolated over a 38 game season.

21 games played to the value of 14 Premier League goals = 0.6667 goals per game

0.6667 multiply by 38 = 25.33

The Performance Marker

There we have it, at this current moment in time when accounting for goals scored in Portugal, the exchange rate and an extrapolation of this form for the rest of the season, Viktor Gyokeres is currently worth 25 Premier League goals a season.

The question is could he reach that marker?

The answer we do not know until he makes a move but we can assume he does move to a Premier League club.

He makes a move, but making a move to Manchester United could be a lot different to making a move to Crystal Palace (although I’ll leave you to pick which is the lesser move)

What our currency conversion model does not factor in yet is the strength of club that a player would move to. According to the model, a Premier League club is a Premier League club with no variance in quality - something that could cause issues.

However, if Gyokeres did move to Old Trafford in the summer, a 25-goal season is not the most outlandish benchmark and if nothing else, we now have a live practical example of how this model works.

That explains how it works in a potential move, in my next issue I am going to look at how it works when a player actually moves.

The Admin Bit

This concept is far from the finished article and this is where your feedback comes in very handy.

Any suggestions to the modelling or players you want to see put through the currency converter, please let me know in the comments or by emailing me at:

[email protected]

Also, if this has grabbed your interest enough to tell a friend or two about the concept - word of mouth is much better than me putting even more money in Elon Musk’s pocket.

Thanks

Dan